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Author ORCID Identifier

Adam Drobniak: 0000-0002-1421-2923

Jan Bondaruk: 0000-0002-6449-7285

Mirosław Skibski: 0009-0000-9286-5797

Abstract

The dynamics of phasing out of hard coal mining are currently the subject of many debates and policies programming the energy transition. Diversity of opinions on the speed of the hard coal mining transition is evident. This discourse uses a number of technical, environmental, economic and social arguments that are not always supported by evidence-based analyses. As assumed in the European Green Deal, a responsible approach to decarbonisation requires just transition values. Thus, the negative effects of mining phasing out should be well recognized to enable their mitigation. This applies especially to the Silesian Voivodeship, where the concentration of so-called coal regions is the highest in the EU. The article formulates scenarios of changes in the labor market in the Silesian Voivodeship and its coal regions, showing the effects of various variants of hard coal mining phase-out up to 2049. The scenarios were constructed based on the “back-casting” methodology and then applied into the portfolio method. The conclusions create a knowledge base enabling a more rational approach to the discussion on the pace of coal mining phase out as key assumptions for strategic documents planning decarbonisation in its various dimensions.

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.

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